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Es una empresa de impresión 3d, que realiza la impresión 3d, mediante cabezales Inkjet. Dicho sistema permite imprimir en array lineal, imprime por filas. ExOne, trabaja para sectores industriales, como automoción y aeronaútica.
Si alguno fuera tan amable de realizar el análisis técnico tambien estaría muy bien. Coste del informe: 250€, para vosotros gratis et amore.
*********
ExOne was founded in 2005 when it was spun out from a company called Extrude Hone Corporation. Extrude Hone’s background was in non-traditional machining processes, and the company was early to the game of additive manufacturing.
ExOne went public in February of 2013 at $18 per share on the back of a bullish market for 3D printing. While it reached a high of about $75 in August of 2013, it also suffered the pullback in 3D printing stocks and is now trading around $10.
ExOne generates revenue by selling large industrial 3D printers, which tend to range in price from $100,000 to more than $1 million. It also has production service centers where it can print components, parts, and molds with its own 3D printers to customer specifications. It is a great way to generate revenue with customers who aren’t yet ready to purchase their own industrial 3D printer.
ExOne is also one of the largest suppliers of materials used for the industrial additive manufacturing industry. In this regard, ExOne’s business model is similar to Hewlett-Packard’s laser printer business, which sells both the printers and the ink cartridges. In this case, ExOne’s “cartridges” are the metal, plastic, and ceramic materials that feed the printers.
The company is most well known for being the best in what is called binder jetting technology. Binder jetting is one of the major kinds of additive manufacturing technology, and it is capable of producing products at quality levels good enough for the aerospace and automotive industries in a variety of materials.
The graphic above shows a simplification of the binder jetting additive manufacturing process.
A powder, typically metallic, is first laid down. Then a print head moves across the top of the powder and applies a “binder” to the powder in the shape of the desired design. You can think of the binder like a glue that adheres the metal powder together with heat. Once one layer is complete, a new layer of powder is rolled over the previous layer and the binder adds on another layer.
This process continues until the desired object is produced. The process is straightforward… however, doing it at the quality standard for the aerospace industry is the hard part.
Then, there are a variety of post-processing techniques used after the object has been printed. The objects are often cured in ovens at high heat to harden them or make them denser. It depends on the application and the materials being used.
So why is binder jetting such an important printing process in the industry? The advantages of binder jetting technology are:
No additional support structures are required for the printing to take place, and nothing needs to be removed after the printing is completed.
Printing time is faster than most 3D-printing technologies.
The cost of printing is lower than other technologies, as there is basically no wasted materials.
Tonalidad printing is possible, as colored inks can be printed onto every layer along with the binder.
The process can produce shapes that cannot be produced using subtractive manufacturing techniques – think highly complex structural designs.
ExOne’s printers can also directly print objects in materials such as bronze, stainless steel, nickel-based alloys, cobalt chrome, ceramics, or other forms of metallic mixes. Parts produced with metal alloys (such as Inconel 625 or Inconel 718) can be used to produce aerospace, turbine, and other high-end industrial components.
To give you a sense of how valuable printing components for the aerospace industry can be… just by printing metal parts like brackets and hinges for an aircraft, the overall weight of an aircraft can be reduced by up to 7%. This can result in significant savings in fuel costs as well as reduced overall carbon emissions.
That’s why major manufacturers like Boeing are using ExOne’s technology. For example:
Boeing has over 20,000 3D-printed parts in its aircraft.
Boeing uses 3D printing to produce and store spare aircraft parts.
Boeing is expected to have 100,000 printed fuel nozzles in its jets by 2020.
ExOne’s printers are also capable of printing sand casts to produce molds for the production of different products, which has several advantages over alternatives:
No need to create a model of the desired object.
Simply 3D print the mold to be used for casting the desired object.
Effective for both small and very large molds.
Saves significant time and money.
In short, ExOne has made a strategic bet and invested heavily in one of the most valuable areas of additive manufacturing for the industrial sector… and it is the best at what it does.
The Timing Is Right
As I said, I’ve been watching the additive manufacturing industry since 2010. And I have been waiting for a few key things before recommending ExOne. It took ExOne several years to refine its strategy, but I believe that the patience has paid off.
ExOne is focused on automotive, aerospace, oil and gas, and heavy equipment applications. In my opinion, these are the most lucrative segments of the additive manufacturing industry, and they are the applications that benefit the most from high-quality additive manufacturing for both rapid prototyping and production components.
ExOne sold off its laser technology. It made a clear decision to exit that business. I believe that this was a smart move. While using laser technology in 3D printing applications can be a very accurate process, its accuracy is primarily limited to plastic powders. As a result, this process is not very relevant to ExOne’s strategic segment focus above.
In August of 2016, the company brought in a new CEO, James McCarley, who has spent nearly 30 years in high-performance manufacturing and is sales and business-development focused. The previous CEO, Kent Rockwell, stepped back into an executive chairman role and still owns about 26% of the company.
The company has made significant pogre in refining its operational model towards generating free cash flow. In 2014, ExOne had a negative free cash flow of $61.2 million. The current estimates for 2016 are a loss of only $1.5 million in free cash flow. That’s an extraordinarily positive swing in only 24 months. Current estimates for 2017 are at a positive $9.4 million of free-cash-flow generation. With only $2 million in debt and almost $30 million of cash in the bank, ExOne is now in a healthy financial position.
The additive manufacturing industry is making rapid improvements in its technology. It is estimated that costs for 3D printing will drop 50% by 2019, and printing estimulante ilegal will become 400% faster than it is today. I believe that these rapid improvements will act as an important catalyst for industry growth.
The pullback in 3D-printing stocks has provided us with an incredible window to establish a position in ExOne. The stock is now trading at almost half of where it was at the time of the IPO, and I see very little downside from these levels.
But these aren’t the only reasons I’m recommending ExOne today…
Strong Revenue Growth and Sales Backlog
ExOne’s top line is also looking very strong, as you can see in the chart below.
Assuming that ExOne hits its estimated revenue target of $51.8 million for 2016, this will represent a 28% increase over 2015. And 2017’s current estimation for sales would be an 18%-plus increase over 2016.
ExOne’s sales are relatively balanced between machine sales and the non-machine sales. Remember, the non-machine sales are the sales of components and molds produced to customer specifications at its own production sites and the materials sold to customers for 3D printing.
In the third quarter of 2016, the ratio was split 50/50 between machine and non-machine sales. For the full nine months ending September 30, 2016, the ratio stood at 40% machine sales vs. 60% non-machine sales. Given that the sales of machines can be uneven throughout any given 12-month period, this ratio can shift a bit.
I like this model. It’s kind of like the classic Gillette model of selling the razor and the razor blades… which, of course, is the best part of Gillette’s business.
ExOne’s sales backlog has also increased significantly over the last two years. Its third-quarter 2016 backlog is 50% higher than its fourth-quarter backlog in 2014. Backlog is a critical indicator of future revenue. Consistently increasing sales backlog is a strong indication of future growth.
Strong Insider Alignment
There’s a unique ownership structure at ExOne, with the executive chairman directly holding 26% of the company. In total, directors and executive officers of ExOne hold directly and indirectly about 36.4% of the company. This is certainly a case where the insiders’ interests are well aligned with the shareholders.
In addition to insiders, BlackRock, the largest public investment management company in the world, currently owns about 4.25% of ExOne.
Another major purchase that took place in the fourth quarter of 2016 was by Ark Investment Management, a hedge fund that established a 429,775 share position equivalent to 2.67% of the outstanding shares in ExOne.
Ark is somewhat of a specialist in additive manufacturing investments. And it’s placing a significant bet on ExOne’s future with its own capital.
Attractive Acquisition Target
ExOne is smaller than my typical recommendations in Exponential Tech Investor, with a current enterprise value of only $135 million… but that is also one of the reasons it is such an exciting play. It is a leveraged pure play on the industrial additive manufacturing market.
In an industry that is growing at an annual rate of 26%, I believe that ExOne should be valued around five times enterprise value to sales (EV/Sales). The 2017 EV/Sales ratio is around 2.22.
My estimation for ExOne’s 2019 sales is around $90 million. Applying a ratio of five times EV/Sales results in an enterprise value of around $450 million, 3.3 times higher than the current valuation.
Needless to say, with ExOne trading at these levels and forecasting strong free cash flow in 2017, it will be an attractive takeover target.
There were significant mergers and acquisitions in the industry in 2016. Notable were two major deals initiated by General Electric (GE). In October of 2016, GE announced that it acquired a 75% stake in German additive manufacturing company Concept Laser GmbH for $599 million, with a provision to take full ownership within a number of years.
In November, GE announced the acquisition of 74% of the shares from Swedish additive manufacturing company Arcam AB. The combined value of both deals is thought to be more than $1.3 billion. These two acquisitions became the cornerstones for GE Additive, GE’s additive manufacturing division.
Other industry players, like 3D Systems, have acquired more than 20 3D-printing companies over the last few years. Other than GE and 3D Systems, companies like Canon, Renishaw, Ricoh, Hewlett-Packard, or even Taiwanese manufacturing conglomerate New Kinpo Group might be acquirers.
Any such acquisition would likely bring a 30%–50% premium over the trading stock price.
Action to Take: ExOne (XONE) is a buy up to $10.50. We will apply a 25% trailing stop loss for our risk-management strategy on this position.
Si alguno fuera tan amable de realizar el análisis técnico tambien estaría muy bien. Coste del informe: 250€, para vosotros gratis et amore.
*********
ExOne was founded in 2005 when it was spun out from a company called Extrude Hone Corporation. Extrude Hone’s background was in non-traditional machining processes, and the company was early to the game of additive manufacturing.
ExOne went public in February of 2013 at $18 per share on the back of a bullish market for 3D printing. While it reached a high of about $75 in August of 2013, it also suffered the pullback in 3D printing stocks and is now trading around $10.
ExOne generates revenue by selling large industrial 3D printers, which tend to range in price from $100,000 to more than $1 million. It also has production service centers where it can print components, parts, and molds with its own 3D printers to customer specifications. It is a great way to generate revenue with customers who aren’t yet ready to purchase their own industrial 3D printer.
ExOne is also one of the largest suppliers of materials used for the industrial additive manufacturing industry. In this regard, ExOne’s business model is similar to Hewlett-Packard’s laser printer business, which sells both the printers and the ink cartridges. In this case, ExOne’s “cartridges” are the metal, plastic, and ceramic materials that feed the printers.
The company is most well known for being the best in what is called binder jetting technology. Binder jetting is one of the major kinds of additive manufacturing technology, and it is capable of producing products at quality levels good enough for the aerospace and automotive industries in a variety of materials.
The graphic above shows a simplification of the binder jetting additive manufacturing process.
A powder, typically metallic, is first laid down. Then a print head moves across the top of the powder and applies a “binder” to the powder in the shape of the desired design. You can think of the binder like a glue that adheres the metal powder together with heat. Once one layer is complete, a new layer of powder is rolled over the previous layer and the binder adds on another layer.
This process continues until the desired object is produced. The process is straightforward… however, doing it at the quality standard for the aerospace industry is the hard part.
Then, there are a variety of post-processing techniques used after the object has been printed. The objects are often cured in ovens at high heat to harden them or make them denser. It depends on the application and the materials being used.
So why is binder jetting such an important printing process in the industry? The advantages of binder jetting technology are:
No additional support structures are required for the printing to take place, and nothing needs to be removed after the printing is completed.
Printing time is faster than most 3D-printing technologies.
The cost of printing is lower than other technologies, as there is basically no wasted materials.
Tonalidad printing is possible, as colored inks can be printed onto every layer along with the binder.
The process can produce shapes that cannot be produced using subtractive manufacturing techniques – think highly complex structural designs.
ExOne’s printers can also directly print objects in materials such as bronze, stainless steel, nickel-based alloys, cobalt chrome, ceramics, or other forms of metallic mixes. Parts produced with metal alloys (such as Inconel 625 or Inconel 718) can be used to produce aerospace, turbine, and other high-end industrial components.
To give you a sense of how valuable printing components for the aerospace industry can be… just by printing metal parts like brackets and hinges for an aircraft, the overall weight of an aircraft can be reduced by up to 7%. This can result in significant savings in fuel costs as well as reduced overall carbon emissions.
That’s why major manufacturers like Boeing are using ExOne’s technology. For example:
Boeing has over 20,000 3D-printed parts in its aircraft.
Boeing uses 3D printing to produce and store spare aircraft parts.
Boeing is expected to have 100,000 printed fuel nozzles in its jets by 2020.
ExOne’s printers are also capable of printing sand casts to produce molds for the production of different products, which has several advantages over alternatives:
No need to create a model of the desired object.
Simply 3D print the mold to be used for casting the desired object.
Effective for both small and very large molds.
Saves significant time and money.
In short, ExOne has made a strategic bet and invested heavily in one of the most valuable areas of additive manufacturing for the industrial sector… and it is the best at what it does.
The Timing Is Right
As I said, I’ve been watching the additive manufacturing industry since 2010. And I have been waiting for a few key things before recommending ExOne. It took ExOne several years to refine its strategy, but I believe that the patience has paid off.
ExOne is focused on automotive, aerospace, oil and gas, and heavy equipment applications. In my opinion, these are the most lucrative segments of the additive manufacturing industry, and they are the applications that benefit the most from high-quality additive manufacturing for both rapid prototyping and production components.
ExOne sold off its laser technology. It made a clear decision to exit that business. I believe that this was a smart move. While using laser technology in 3D printing applications can be a very accurate process, its accuracy is primarily limited to plastic powders. As a result, this process is not very relevant to ExOne’s strategic segment focus above.
In August of 2016, the company brought in a new CEO, James McCarley, who has spent nearly 30 years in high-performance manufacturing and is sales and business-development focused. The previous CEO, Kent Rockwell, stepped back into an executive chairman role and still owns about 26% of the company.
The company has made significant pogre in refining its operational model towards generating free cash flow. In 2014, ExOne had a negative free cash flow of $61.2 million. The current estimates for 2016 are a loss of only $1.5 million in free cash flow. That’s an extraordinarily positive swing in only 24 months. Current estimates for 2017 are at a positive $9.4 million of free-cash-flow generation. With only $2 million in debt and almost $30 million of cash in the bank, ExOne is now in a healthy financial position.
The additive manufacturing industry is making rapid improvements in its technology. It is estimated that costs for 3D printing will drop 50% by 2019, and printing estimulante ilegal will become 400% faster than it is today. I believe that these rapid improvements will act as an important catalyst for industry growth.
The pullback in 3D-printing stocks has provided us with an incredible window to establish a position in ExOne. The stock is now trading at almost half of where it was at the time of the IPO, and I see very little downside from these levels.
But these aren’t the only reasons I’m recommending ExOne today…
Strong Revenue Growth and Sales Backlog
ExOne’s top line is also looking very strong, as you can see in the chart below.
Assuming that ExOne hits its estimated revenue target of $51.8 million for 2016, this will represent a 28% increase over 2015. And 2017’s current estimation for sales would be an 18%-plus increase over 2016.
ExOne’s sales are relatively balanced between machine sales and the non-machine sales. Remember, the non-machine sales are the sales of components and molds produced to customer specifications at its own production sites and the materials sold to customers for 3D printing.
In the third quarter of 2016, the ratio was split 50/50 between machine and non-machine sales. For the full nine months ending September 30, 2016, the ratio stood at 40% machine sales vs. 60% non-machine sales. Given that the sales of machines can be uneven throughout any given 12-month period, this ratio can shift a bit.
I like this model. It’s kind of like the classic Gillette model of selling the razor and the razor blades… which, of course, is the best part of Gillette’s business.
ExOne’s sales backlog has also increased significantly over the last two years. Its third-quarter 2016 backlog is 50% higher than its fourth-quarter backlog in 2014. Backlog is a critical indicator of future revenue. Consistently increasing sales backlog is a strong indication of future growth.
Strong Insider Alignment
There’s a unique ownership structure at ExOne, with the executive chairman directly holding 26% of the company. In total, directors and executive officers of ExOne hold directly and indirectly about 36.4% of the company. This is certainly a case where the insiders’ interests are well aligned with the shareholders.
In addition to insiders, BlackRock, the largest public investment management company in the world, currently owns about 4.25% of ExOne.
Another major purchase that took place in the fourth quarter of 2016 was by Ark Investment Management, a hedge fund that established a 429,775 share position equivalent to 2.67% of the outstanding shares in ExOne.
Ark is somewhat of a specialist in additive manufacturing investments. And it’s placing a significant bet on ExOne’s future with its own capital.
Attractive Acquisition Target
ExOne is smaller than my typical recommendations in Exponential Tech Investor, with a current enterprise value of only $135 million… but that is also one of the reasons it is such an exciting play. It is a leveraged pure play on the industrial additive manufacturing market.
In an industry that is growing at an annual rate of 26%, I believe that ExOne should be valued around five times enterprise value to sales (EV/Sales). The 2017 EV/Sales ratio is around 2.22.
My estimation for ExOne’s 2019 sales is around $90 million. Applying a ratio of five times EV/Sales results in an enterprise value of around $450 million, 3.3 times higher than the current valuation.
Needless to say, with ExOne trading at these levels and forecasting strong free cash flow in 2017, it will be an attractive takeover target.
There were significant mergers and acquisitions in the industry in 2016. Notable were two major deals initiated by General Electric (GE). In October of 2016, GE announced that it acquired a 75% stake in German additive manufacturing company Concept Laser GmbH for $599 million, with a provision to take full ownership within a number of years.
In November, GE announced the acquisition of 74% of the shares from Swedish additive manufacturing company Arcam AB. The combined value of both deals is thought to be more than $1.3 billion. These two acquisitions became the cornerstones for GE Additive, GE’s additive manufacturing division.
Other industry players, like 3D Systems, have acquired more than 20 3D-printing companies over the last few years. Other than GE and 3D Systems, companies like Canon, Renishaw, Ricoh, Hewlett-Packard, or even Taiwanese manufacturing conglomerate New Kinpo Group might be acquirers.
Any such acquisition would likely bring a 30%–50% premium over the trading stock price.
Action to Take: ExOne (XONE) is a buy up to $10.50. We will apply a 25% trailing stop loss for our risk-management strategy on this position.