ashilnayak2
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- 16 May 2020
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Intel will launch GPU this year. They must officially enter the discrete GPU business. This will compress the margins into amd and nvda.
Amd is becoming competitive against Intel CPU, especially with the release of Zen 3. So Intel is also being killed there. But in return, AMD's gpu business, which despite quality being much weaker than nvidia, still comprises 50% of revenue, is about to be challenged by Intel.
All 3 are also threatened by cloud gaming, and perhaps cloud computing in the future. Cloud gaming will further reduce the PC / latop update cycle. A 10 year old PC can run games smoothly on Stadia and Geforce Now. Many people who would otherwise upgrade their PCs would now only purchase a cloud gaming subscription. Cloud games seem to be growing extremely fast.
Nvidia has the forecast, so they set up GFN on their own. But you can enable your own GPU business. Better than letting a competitor do it to Nvidia, but still not ideal.
and then ARM is to threaten both intel and amd cpus. it will soon be good enough for general computing and is less powerful and cheaper to make. And combined with the cloud computing trend it's especially deadly. With cloud games, you can easily play AAA games with demanding graphics settings in a browser, with a PC or mobile device powered only by ARM CPU.
I just don't see a good growth opportunity for these 3 stocks in the near future. Both amd and nvda have a fat growth premium, how long will that last? intc is also not going anywhere because the CPU market is challenged.
Amd is becoming competitive against Intel CPU, especially with the release of Zen 3. So Intel is also being killed there. But in return, AMD's gpu business, which despite quality being much weaker than nvidia, still comprises 50% of revenue, is about to be challenged by Intel.
All 3 are also threatened by cloud gaming, and perhaps cloud computing in the future. Cloud gaming will further reduce the PC / latop update cycle. A 10 year old PC can run games smoothly on Stadia and Geforce Now. Many people who would otherwise upgrade their PCs would now only purchase a cloud gaming subscription. Cloud games seem to be growing extremely fast.
Nvidia has the forecast, so they set up GFN on their own. But you can enable your own GPU business. Better than letting a competitor do it to Nvidia, but still not ideal.
and then ARM is to threaten both intel and amd cpus. it will soon be good enough for general computing and is less powerful and cheaper to make. And combined with the cloud computing trend it's especially deadly. With cloud games, you can easily play AAA games with demanding graphics settings in a browser, with a PC or mobile device powered only by ARM CPU.
I just don't see a good growth opportunity for these 3 stocks in the near future. Both amd and nvda have a fat growth premium, how long will that last? intc is also not going anywhere because the CPU market is challenged.
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