TEVA: farmafia genérica israelí

se ha convertido en el mayor fabricante y distribuidor de genéricos del mundo. Su última adquisión, la no cumplimentación de objetivos de ventas y un litígio, la han afectado en tesosrería y en valor bursátil.

Otros datos para el largo plazo. Para el 2020 el 70% de las patentes farmacológicas expirean, es entonces cuando TEVA, tiene vía olibre para tirar los precios....
Precio actual $32, precio más bajo desde 1991.

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Let's talk about Teva (NYSE: TEVA).

Honestly, I'm not sure it could get any worse for the company right now. On Monday, Teva's CEO, Erez Vigodman, stepped down (he was fired) trinc the loss of four different patents as well as a U.S. bribery settlement related to its Russian dealings. Considered one of the best turnaround specialists in the industry, Vigodman only lasted two months on the job after taking over for former CEO Sigurdur Olafsson in December.

And then on Wednesday Israeli police (where Teva is based) launched their own investigation into the company's bribery charges.

No surprise: TEVA shares are near 10-year lows. TEVA has significantly underperformed the market over the past 12 months—which is why Vigodman was really fired.

The company, along with the rest of the industry, is under a ton of pressure when it comes to its drug pricing practices. Plus, one of the patents that Teva just lost was for its signature drug, Copaxone. This includes four patents specifically for its 40mg dosage. They still have two other patents on Copaxone for 20mg.

Teva is appealing the decision. This appeal also includes a request for a preliminary injunction against any company making a generic to Copaxone 40mg until the appeals process is over (but the court has not ruled on this yet).

But to be honest, most insiders believed they would lose this case. They were modeling for a 40% sales reduction in Copaxone 40mg starting next year, as generics enter the market.

It was priced in.

Want more proof? Here is what analysts are saying this week about Teva:

Credit Suisse: "We already conservatively assume 2017 generic competition in our TEVA base case so today's news does not lead us to change our current estimates."

Leerink cut its price target by just $1 per share (from $40 to $39).
Deutsche Bank: "As we recently noted, given investor questions about management credibility and the fact that three of the patents did not fare well in the inter partes review (IPR) process, we believed investors were expecting a negative ruling, with generic competition beginning this year or next. We are not changing our estimates based on this development, as we already model generic competition in 2H17 and more significant erosion in 2018."
JP Morgan: "We are not expecting any major changes to 2017 guidance as Teva already provided its outlook in early January, which also quantified the potential impact from generic Copaxone 40mg competition."


TEVA does have high debt levels since its acquisition of Actavis, and some speculate that this could lead to a dividend cut that could hurt the shares short-term (which I highly doubt). But even if it happens, I believe a dividend cut would be a huge long-term catalyst for the company since the dividend is currently costing the company $1.6B every year.

Still, most of this news is already baked in with shares down 30% over the past six months.

On the good side, TEVA now trades at just 6x forward earnings. That's the cheapest the stock has traded since 1991!

The 13Fs (fund managers disclosing what they bought / sold last quarter) are coming out in a few weeks. I expect a lot of these big managers to start building a position in this name in the weeks and months ahead. Especially since the company already warned (lowered EPS estimates) a few weeks ago.

TEVA is STILL a long-run homerun and it is already bouncing back from this (admittedly) terrible stretch of bad news.