bertok
Será en Octubre
¿que enlaces has visto?. :
:Hasta ahora sólo he puesto los light. Los tengo mucho más hard para cuando empiece la fiesta 8: Intento dosificaros la información para no herir vuestra sensibilidad 😀
¿Habéis visto el IBEX 35? Enero 2013: The end is here +
- Autor del tema pecata minuta
- Fecha de inicio
¿que enlaces has visto?. :
:Hasta ahora sólo he puesto los light. Los tengo mucho más hard para cuando empiece la fiesta 8: Intento dosificaros la información para no herir vuestra sensibilidad 😀
Janus
Será en Octubre
- Desde
- 18 Ago 2011
- Mensajes
- 44.558
- Fruta
- 73.219
El tema es que las sociedades de inversión suelen cotizar con un gran descuento sobre los precios de liquidación de sus participadas. Alba la he seguido durante muchísimos años porque ha sido habitual en el pasado que su capitalización era menor que su participación en Carrefour y algún subalterno más.
bertok
Será en Octubre
Hace años la seguí por fundamentales.
Era comprar clara cuando cotizaba con un 50% del valor de sus participadas y se vendía cuando cotizaba cerca del 25% del valor de sus participadas.
Janus
Será en Octubre
- Desde
- 18 Ago 2011
- Mensajes
- 44.558
- Fruta
- 73.219
A mí Apache como energética no me mola ná. Es demasiado grande para apuntar a subidas importantes.
Sharp me gusta muchísimo técnicamente. está en una especie de gallardete en el que la pauta de volumen es excelente.
Simple Simon
Madmaxista
- Desde
- 12 May 2011
- Mensajes
- 863
- Fruta
- 920
Dedicado a Janus. Carbon, carbon, para los que se porten bien y hagan los deberes:rolleye: Ahora solo hay que mirar que compañias tienen mas facil la exportacion...
Medium-Term Coal Market Report 2012 Factsheet
Only shale gas stops coal demand growth
18 December 2012
Coal demand is growing everywhere but the United States. The trend of the last decade continued in 2011, with coal supplying near half of the incremental primary energy supply globally. Coal demand grew 4.3% in 2011, or 304 million tonnes (mt). Chinese demand grew by 233 mt. The only region where coal demand declined was the United States. That drop is neither policy-driven nor a consequence of recession but rather the result of the availability of cheap gas.
Even though coal demand growth is slowing, coal’s share of the global energy mix is still rising, and by 2017 coal will come close to surpassing oil as the world’s top energy source. The world will burn around 1.2 billion more tonnes of coal per year by 2017 compared with today. That’s more than the current annual coal consumption of the United States and Russia combined.
China has become the largest coal importer in the world. In 2009, China became a net coal importer for the first time. In 2011, it became the largest coal importer, surpassing Japan, which had held the position for decades. Chinese imports (including Hong Kong) reached 204 mt in 2011 and they continued to grow in 2012.
Indonesia has become the largest coal exporter in the world. As another example of the increasing weight of non-OECD countries, Indonesia surpassed long-standing leader Australia as the largest exporter on a tonnage basis. Floods in Queensland in 2010-2011 constrained Australian exports, while Indonesia growth did not stop, surpassing the 300 mt line.
The coal renaissance in Europe is only temporary. Low CO2 and high gas prices plus coal oversupply coming from US have made coal more competitive than gas for power generation, triggering coal consumption. However, increasing use of renewables, retirement of coal plants, and more balanced gas and coal prices will decrease coal consumption in most of Europe. All in all, coal demand in 2017 will be 10 million tonnes coal equivalent (mtce) higher than in 2011, as growth in Turkey will offset the more general decline.
Bad times for US coal. The fiercest competition for coal occurs in United States, where gas has gone below the $2/MBtu line. Whereas exports recently could alleviate the plight of US coal producers, declining demand will give rise to cuts and layoffs in mines, especially in the high-cost Appalachia area. Medium-Term Coal Market Report 2012 projections for US coal demand by 2017 are 600 mtce, a dramatic fall from 697 mtce in 2011. US production is projected to fall from 771 mtce in 2011 to 697 mtce in 2017.
India will increase its influence in coal markets. Endowed with large coal reserves, a population of more than 1 billion, electricity shortages and the largest pocket of energy poverty in the world, India makes the perfect cocktail to boost coal consumption. Domestic industry’s performance will allow India to be the largest seaborne coal importer by 2017 with 204 mtce and the second-largest coal consumer, surpassing United States.
Australia will recover its throne as the biggest coal exporter. Despite some issues such as rising labour costs and domestic currency rate, which give Indonesia competitive advantages, Australia will concentrate a great share on infrastructure and mine expansion investments to become the largest exporter, with 356 mtce by 2017, well above Indonesia’s total exports then of 309 mtce.
Enough investments are planned and in pogre to ensuresupply. Uncertainties will delay or cancel many of them. In the tubería are almost 300 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of terminal capacity and the 150 mtpa (probable) to 600 mtpa (potential) of mine expansion capacity, more than enough to meet coal demand in a secure way over the outlook period. But current low prices and uncertainty about economic growth, especially when related to China, will delay and stop some investments.
Coal’s share of global energy mix to continue rising, with coal closing in on oil as world’s top energy source by 2017
Medium-Term Coal Market Report 2012 Factsheet
Only shale gas stops coal demand growth
18 December 2012
Coal demand is growing everywhere but the United States. The trend of the last decade continued in 2011, with coal supplying near half of the incremental primary energy supply globally. Coal demand grew 4.3% in 2011, or 304 million tonnes (mt). Chinese demand grew by 233 mt. The only region where coal demand declined was the United States. That drop is neither policy-driven nor a consequence of recession but rather the result of the availability of cheap gas.
Even though coal demand growth is slowing, coal’s share of the global energy mix is still rising, and by 2017 coal will come close to surpassing oil as the world’s top energy source. The world will burn around 1.2 billion more tonnes of coal per year by 2017 compared with today. That’s more than the current annual coal consumption of the United States and Russia combined.
China has become the largest coal importer in the world. In 2009, China became a net coal importer for the first time. In 2011, it became the largest coal importer, surpassing Japan, which had held the position for decades. Chinese imports (including Hong Kong) reached 204 mt in 2011 and they continued to grow in 2012.
Indonesia has become the largest coal exporter in the world. As another example of the increasing weight of non-OECD countries, Indonesia surpassed long-standing leader Australia as the largest exporter on a tonnage basis. Floods in Queensland in 2010-2011 constrained Australian exports, while Indonesia growth did not stop, surpassing the 300 mt line.
The coal renaissance in Europe is only temporary. Low CO2 and high gas prices plus coal oversupply coming from US have made coal more competitive than gas for power generation, triggering coal consumption. However, increasing use of renewables, retirement of coal plants, and more balanced gas and coal prices will decrease coal consumption in most of Europe. All in all, coal demand in 2017 will be 10 million tonnes coal equivalent (mtce) higher than in 2011, as growth in Turkey will offset the more general decline.
Bad times for US coal. The fiercest competition for coal occurs in United States, where gas has gone below the $2/MBtu line. Whereas exports recently could alleviate the plight of US coal producers, declining demand will give rise to cuts and layoffs in mines, especially in the high-cost Appalachia area. Medium-Term Coal Market Report 2012 projections for US coal demand by 2017 are 600 mtce, a dramatic fall from 697 mtce in 2011. US production is projected to fall from 771 mtce in 2011 to 697 mtce in 2017.
India will increase its influence in coal markets. Endowed with large coal reserves, a population of more than 1 billion, electricity shortages and the largest pocket of energy poverty in the world, India makes the perfect cocktail to boost coal consumption. Domestic industry’s performance will allow India to be the largest seaborne coal importer by 2017 with 204 mtce and the second-largest coal consumer, surpassing United States.
Australia will recover its throne as the biggest coal exporter. Despite some issues such as rising labour costs and domestic currency rate, which give Indonesia competitive advantages, Australia will concentrate a great share on infrastructure and mine expansion investments to become the largest exporter, with 356 mtce by 2017, well above Indonesia’s total exports then of 309 mtce.
Enough investments are planned and in pogre to ensuresupply. Uncertainties will delay or cancel many of them. In the tubería are almost 300 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of terminal capacity and the 150 mtpa (probable) to 600 mtpa (potential) of mine expansion capacity, more than enough to meet coal demand in a secure way over the outlook period. But current low prices and uncertainty about economic growth, especially when related to China, will delay and stop some investments.
Coal’s share of global energy mix to continue rising, with coal closing in on oil as world’s top energy source by 2017
Tienes que estar registrado para ver este contenido
bertok
Será en Octubre
[YOUTUBE]RhdsFdylwMk[/YOUTUBE]
Janus
Será en Octubre
- Desde
- 18 Ago 2011
- Mensajes
- 44.558
- Fruta
- 73.219
Un pepino de inversión, tronco!!!!!.
Eso del cheap gas ................. viene siendo menos cheap. Miren diariamente a Chesapeake, Devon, Encana .....
ponzi
Madmaxista
- Desde
- 13 Oct 2011
- Mensajes
- 9.792
- Fruta
- 9.500
Esta bastante lejos del 25%.Tendria que calcularlo bien pero debe rondar los 45-50 eu
Janus
Será en Octubre
- Desde
- 18 Ago 2011
- Mensajes
- 44.558
- Fruta
- 73.219
ponzi
Madmaxista
- Desde
- 13 Oct 2011
- Mensajes
- 9.792
- Fruta
- 9.500
Mirar la entrevista al ceo de Nokia.Quizas tenga razon el forero que la recomendo en otro hilo, subestime la valoracion de patentes.Desde luego pillarla desde abajo y ver como remonta el negocio puede ser de esos golpes de suerte que bien merece arriesgar mas de la cuenta.
Tienes que estar registrado para ver este contenido
ponzi
Madmaxista
- Desde
- 13 Oct 2011
- Mensajes
- 9.792
- Fruta
- 9.500
atman
Madmaxista
Tal vez debí decir que esto van siendo "apuntes". Valores que reviso y en los que encuentro cositas de interés. Como algunos dicen... "en seguimiento"...
AMR (esta para cortos)
Houston Energy
Mecox Lane
Camelot Information
De verdad... se encuentra cada cosa...
Mines Management
Bueno a dormir, mañana sigo...
AMR (esta para cortos)
Houston Energy
Mecox Lane
Camelot Information
De verdad... se encuentra cada cosa...
Mines Management
Bueno a dormir, mañana sigo...
Simple Simon
Madmaxista
- Desde
- 12 May 2011
- Mensajes
- 863
- Fruta
- 920
Morningstar´s analysis about Nokia:
Estimated price: intellectual properties over 1 euro per share (Motorola´s patent portfolio was worth about $5.5 billion); other business parts (smartphones, antiestéticaturephones, NSN) at least over 1.50 euro per share.
And NAVTEQ´s price not included (Nokia bought NAVTEQ with 5.7 billion euro). All in all, even in this case, Nokia share price would be at least over 2.50 euro, excluded NAVTEQ! And Nokia´s net cash is now 3.6 billion euros.
In other words, the sum of parts of Nokia and net cash are worth much more than its market cap now, which means NOK share is right now heavily undervalued.
Nokia Is Still Extremely Cheap
The company has since partially offset these antiestéticars with excellent cash management, restructuring aimed at reducing costs, and more recently, its better than expected 3rd quarter results. The company achieved operational profitability (1.1% non-IFRS) with better than expected revenues, triggering a 20% increase in stock price. As the table below shows, these factors have enabled Nokia to maintain a healthy interest coverage ratio and quick ratio (nearly equal to the industry average), dispensing any immediate liquidity concerns.
Company
Industry
Sector
Quick Ratio (MRQ)
1.16
1.62
1.64
Current Ratio (MRQ)
1.28
1.96
3.01
LT Debt to Equity (MRQ)
48.76
22.29
10.61
Total Debt to Equity (MRQ)
66.45
39.67
19.69
Interest Coverage (TTM)
4.9
4.91
164.78
Figure 1: Financial Strength/ Reuters
Valuation
Nokia is currently operating at a loss and the sell side expects the company to become profitable, somewhere in 2014. The stock is very volatile, as can be assessed from the 100% run in the last 6 months. I believe Nokia’s share price will continue to fluctuate with short term catalysts and it’s still pointless to value the stock on 2014 earnings given the uncertainty. Instead, investors should value the company on a worst case scenario. I believe at this point, Nokia’s biggest assets are its impressive patent portfolio, Cash, NSN and Navtaq.
I have used three recent patent sales to get an approximate value per share for Nokia’s current patent portfolio.
$ millions
AOL (AOL) Patent Sale
Vringo (VRNG) Purchase
Nortel Networks
No. of Patents Sold
800
500
6000
Sales Value
1100
22
4500
Price Paid Per Patent
1.4
0.0
0.8
No Nokia Patents
9500
9500
9500
Patent Portfolio Value
13063
418
7125
Shares Outstanding
3830
3830
3830
Per Share ($)
3.4
0.1
1.9
Average Price Per Patent
0.79
Average Patent Portfolio Value
7316
Average Per Share Value ($)
1.91
Figure 2: NOK Source: Google Finance
As the calculations show, the patent value per share of Nokia’s patents comes down to $1.91 per share. According to Nokia’s disclosures, the company ended Q3 with gross cash of $11.5 billion (EUR 8.8 billion). The Q3 results also indicated that Nokia had EUR 288 in currently maturing debt and EUR 1.1 billion in short term borrowing. Deducting other liabilities, we arrive at a net cash position of $4.7 billion (EUR 3.6 billion). This comes down to a per share amount of $1.22, and adding the per share patent value of $1.91, the value of cash and patents together is $3.13.
Bottom Line
Nokia still trades way below its salvage value. The company’s patents and net cash, alone are worth $3.13 per share. This of course does not include Nokia’s Navtaq business and NSN (Nokia Siemens Network). These divisions continue to be profitable, despite problems of Nokia’s smartphone division. In Q3 NSN sales were EUR 3.5 billion and operating profit was EUR 323 million; the operating profit of location and commerce segment was EUR 37 million. The combined value of Navtaq (3x sales for $3 billion) and NSN (0.5x sales for $7 billion) is around $10 billion ($2.6 per share). This gives us an approximate per share value of $5 for NOK. Therefore, Nokia is still trading at a discount to its salvage value and is an excellent value opportunity.
M.S./SmartEquity
NOK is so cheap, because the stock has been over sold!
Nokia is the most short sold stock in both Helsinki and New York!
NOK short interest:
NYSE November 30
295,118,232 shares
Helsinki December 6
10.7% (with investors over 0.5%, below 0.5% not listed)
Nokia´s total share number (approximately 3.75 billion shares) covers both New York and Helsinki.
Simple Simon
Madmaxista
- Desde
- 12 May 2011
- Mensajes
- 863
- Fruta
- 920
Vuelvo a recordar la fecha de resultados del 4Q. 24 Enero, tic tac...
ponzi
Madmaxista
- Desde
- 13 Oct 2011
- Mensajes
- 9.792
- Fruta
- 9.500
Parece que el ceo se esta moviendo, ahora hacia donde no lo tengo claro.Me voy a dormir con la escena del hombre en llamas descrita por elop, solo hay dos opciones o morir o tirarse a las gelidas aguas del atlantico 😀
Última edición:
diosmercado
Guest
A ver si al final vemos los 8570...
Camino de ello vamos.
Camino de ello vamos.
ponzi
Madmaxista
- Desde
- 13 Oct 2011
- Mensajes
- 9.792
- Fruta
- 9.500
Yo la veo bastante saneada, ahora no esperes que te vaya a duplicar la capitalizacion.Se suele mover entre 1200-2000 mill de eu.Bme es como si fuese renta fija a 10 años con sus oportunos cupones.Este año es probable que baje su beneficio por la nueva ley de montoro pero aun asi como mucho bajara 0,1-0,5 el dividendo anual.
windslegend
Madmaxista
- Desde
- 24 Feb 2011
- Mensajes
- 913
- Fruta
- 837
La gente confía en android y en la mente de muchos sigue que nokia eran los mejores, el primer nokia con android arrasaría.
ponzi
Madmaxista
- Desde
- 13 Oct 2011
- Mensajes
- 9.792
- Fruta
- 9.500
El lumia 920 creo que es mas potente que el iphone, su unico problema es la visibilidad de su sistema operativo.Lo mas curioso es que no han invertido una barbaridad de dinero,comparativamente con apple el capex de nokia es ridiculo y su cash flow al menos estos años ha aguantado mas o menos, ahora en 2012 creo que saldra un cash flow negativo
Última edición:
Neutron_Mortgages
Madmaxista
- Desde
- 20 Sep 2006
- Mensajes
- 2.424
- Fruta
- 1.259
NO conozco ahora mismo a nadie que tenga un Nokia, puede ser casualidad.
Pero si empiezan a aparecer ya aviso.
A mi lo de un teléfono con Windows ... uff
Pero si empiezan a aparecer ya aviso.
A mi lo de un teléfono con Windows ... uff