¿habeis Visto El Ibex35?

Condor dijo:

Deja los sofismas para otra ocasión y acéptalo: en EE.UU. la gente entrega la llave y se acabó su história con la hipoteca. Y no te estoy hablando de casas huracanadas, ni incendiadas, que para eso tienen seguros y suicidios.

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Mulder dijo:

No me caliento la cabeza argumentando para recibir este tipo de respuestas vacías y huecas.

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Since its recession began 20 years ago, Japan has plowed trillions into its banking system via numerous bailout programs. Japan's mantra is growth without cost. As a result, the Japanese government has built up the world's most crippling debt load.

The government of Japan owes $7.8 trillion. That's $157,000 per capita.

We've been using government debt per capita to compare the government debts of Britain, the United States, and Japan. But government debt to GDP is the ratio economists use to compare the indebtedness of countries. The UK has a government debt-to-GDP ratio of 48%. The U.S. has a government debt-to-GDP ratio of 75%. Japan has a government debt-to-GDP ratio of 187%.

If there's going to be a major sovereign bankruptcy, it's going to happen in Japan. Its economy is a shambles. For years, Japan has relied on exports... but even that's drying up now. In January, Japan's exports plunged 47%, producing a trade deficit. People talk about Japan as a "nation of savers." But that's not true anymore. Japan's personal savings rate has collapsed from 16% in the early 1990s to 2.2% last year.

Japan has an aging population and no immigration. I can't see where it's going to find the money to pay off its huge pile of debt.

The way to play the collapse in Japan is by shorting the yen. Right now, the Japanese yen is the world's most popular currency. Traders perceive it as a safe haven. In 2008, the yen was the world's best performing currency.... Rising 33% against the Canadian dollar, 40% against the British pound, and 19% against the dollar.

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By Greg Relleniton and Kevin G. Hall, McClatchy Newspapers Greg Relleniton And Kevin G. Hall, Mcclatchy Newspapers – Mon Mar 9, 5:19 pm ET

WASHINGTON — Five of America's largest banks, most of which have received $145 billion in taxpayer bailout dollars, still face potentially catastrophic losses from exotic investments if economic conditions substantially worsen, their latest financial reports show.

Citibank, Bank of America , HSBC Bank USA , Wells Fargo Bank and J.P. Morgan Chase reported that their "current" net loss risks from derivatives — insurance-like bets tied to a loan or other underlying asset — surged to $587 billion as of Dec. 31 . Buried in end-of-the-year regulatory reports that McClatchy has reviewed, the figures reflect a jump of 49 percent in just 90 days.

The disclosures underscore the challenges that the banks face as they struggle to navigate through a deepening recession in which all types of loan defaults are soaring.

The banks' potentially huge losses, which could be contained if the economy quickly recovers, also shed new light on the hurdles that President Barack Obama's economic team must overcome to save institutions it deems too big to fail.

While the potential loss totals include risks reported by Wachovia Bank , which Wells Fargo agreed to acquire in October, they don't reflect another Pandora's Box: the impact of Bank of America's Jan. 1 acquisition of tottering investment bank Merrill Lynch , a major derivatives dealer.

Federal regulators portray the potential loss figures as worst-case. However, the risks of these off-balance sheet investments, once thought minimal, have risen sharply as the U.S. has fallen into the steepest economic downturn since World War II, and the big banks' share prices have plummeted to unimaginable lows.

With 12.5 million Americans unemployed and consumer spending in a freefall, antiestéticars are rising that a spate of corporate bankruptcies could deliver a new, crippling blow to major banks. Because of the trading in derivatives, corporate bankruptcies could cause a chain reaction that deprives the banks of hundreds of billions of dollars in insurance they bought on risky debt or forces them to shell out huge sums to cover debt they guaranteed.

The biggest concerns are the banks' holdings of contracts known as credit-default swaps, which can provide insurance against defaults on loans such as subprime mortgages or guarantee actual payments for borrowers who walk away from their debts.

The banks' credit-default swap holdings, with face values in the trillions of dollars, are "a ticking time bomb, and how bad it gets is going to depend on how bad the economy gets," said Christopher Whalen , a managing director of Institutional Risk Analytics, a company that grades banks on their degree of loss risk from complex investments.

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chameleon dijo:

Japon, ¿próxima bancarrota?

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Condor dijo:

Tranquilito eh!, que tu ya venías con tu calentón, no me vayas a achacar a mi eso.

Conoces hipotecados en USA?, pues yo si, y eso es lo que han estado haciendo desde mediados del 2007: devolver casas.

¿Por qué te crees que AIG, Fannie Mae y Freddie Mac tienen esos desajustes? debido a que no hay seguro para tanta inseguridad y porque nadie pagó la hipoteca. ¿O si la pagan? y todo esto es un montaje sólo por jorobar? vamos viejo, no te calientes la cabeza con estas cosas que sólo pasan en España, en dónde se tiene que pagar aún despojado.

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By Dave Kansas

Three days of gains, a sharp move above 7000 and the question starts to arise: Is this move for real?

Of course, just asking the question is one of those things that could queer the rally. The stock market is benefiting from an enormous amount of negative sentiment right now. When everyone hates stocks, that’s usually when stocks start to rebound. Why? Because the pervasiveness of disgust means most people down on stocks have already sold.

Outside of sentiment, here’s a quick breakdown of “real” vs. “not real” indicators:

The rally is real:

1. Oil prices shot higher, despite burgeoning inventories and a reasonably steady dollar. Oil prices are likely to move higher as global growth bottoms and begins to grow. OPEC ‘cuts’ are seldom a good explanation for rising oil prices. Recall that OPEC had the spigots wide open as prices went to $147 a barrel last year.

2. Retail sales showed surprising strength, outside of autos. Some economists expressed disbelief at the retail sales figures, which included an upward revision in January. Consumer getting happier? At least one analyst pointed out that other retail sales measures were not as robust.

3. GE keeps gaining ground. A less brutal downgrade helped GE climb closer toward double-digits. Since hitting $6 a share, GE has steadily bounced higher in the past week. As GE goes…

4. Citigroup and Bank of America keep moving higher. These two firms are at the heart of the heart of the problem for the financial system. Their gains, initially helped by Citi’s internal memo about profitable operations during the first two months of this year, raise the possibility that the financial system is starting to improve, or at least not get worse.

5. GM doesn’t need a $2 billion loan from the government. What are they seeing? Auto sales remain anemic, so it’s hard to tell.

The rally isn’t real:

1. Short interest coming into this week was huge and the debate on Wall Street was between Armageddon and mere hardship. With Armageddon perhaps less likely, shorts start to cover, giving us a nice short-covering rally. Such rallies are often short-lived and not particularly durable. The next few sessions will say much about this possibility.

2. Economic news remains mostly putrid. The weekly jobless claims showed little relief on the job front. No jobs, no buying things, no economic momentum. Hard to square the jobs problems with the retail sales figures.

3. The rest of the world is still a mess. Financial system problems persist around the globe and economic data in places like Eastern Europe and Japan are ugly.

4. The financial system problems remain large and unresolved. Policymakers continue to struggle with what exactly to do and AIG continues to represent a drag on optimistic thoughts.

5. Could be a real “bear market” rally that will play itself out. But, as noted, stocks climb a “wall of worry,” and such worry remains in full supply.

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Possible delta-hedging meltdown in quadruple OPEX week
Conditions are now ripe for a massive sell off...

Next week is a quadruple option expiration week that will likely be extremely volatile.

The market appears to be ready not only to fall on its weight but this sell off may trigger a domino effect in coming Quad-Expiration week. If the market cuts trough key support levels next week, this will force delta hedgers to sell more as the market falls, in turn, strengthens the existing selling climax.

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March 10 (Bloomberg) -- For more than a decade General Electric Co. could easily avoid disclosing the value of its real estate and business loans. Not any more.

Sterne Agee, a Birmingham, Alabama-based brokerage.

Differing Realities

He estimated in a note on March 3 that GE may need more money to cover losses of between $21 billion to $54 billion in the next several years. That would be almost as much as Merrill Lynch & Co. wrote down, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. New York-based Merrill was acquired by Bank of America Corp. of Charlotte, North Carolina.

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With the collapsing American economy, many Americans are rushing to invest in gold; either coins or bar, and also silver. One of the most popular forms of this investment are American coins. Where there is a need, there is always someone to fill it and in this case, the filling consists of the massive counterfeiting of gold coins, silver coins, and even Swiss gold bars in China. Initially, it appeared they were only faking Morgan dollars, but then it turned out they were also making $20 Liberty, and Indian Head gold $2.50, $5, and $10 coins, of all dates. Evidently, this is extremely easy with today's computer-and-laser-die-cutting technology, and the fakes are being die-struck in vast quantities, not cast, and visually at least, are superb copies.

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chameleon dijo:

estoy acorazonado, eso es lo que estoy
estoy leyendo que la bajada de oro a menos de 900 pudo incentivarse porque china ha estado colando oro contaminado con plata. con lo que las reservas de oro no eran lo que se pensaba. y todo esto una maniobra para que los leones entren barato, objetivo : 1250$

y ya se habla de los 2800 del DOW 😱:

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World's largest corperate failure to be announced next week acoording to leaked info from DLA (one of the biggest law firms in the world). See the first news item here:

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chameleon dijo:

Iran ha hecho negocios:

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parece que iran finalmente va a adoptar el euro para sus transacciones.

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SNB4President dijo:

Oriente Medio, sigue el rebote:

Egipto: +2,61%
Kuwait: +0,51%
Israel: +3,19%
Bahrain: -0,04%
Arabia Saudí: +0,27%
Jordania: +1,31%
Oman: +0,54%
Qatar: +3,44%
Emiratos Árabes Unidos: +0,41%

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