Capital Senior Living ( CSU ): Jubilados con pasta

galdubat

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capital senior living ( CSU ):
Positives:
• » The senior population is going to boom over the next several years, sending senior living occupancy rates soaring.
• » CSU’s market cap is a mere $415 million, with $1.1 billion in real estate on its balance sheet.
• » The company has no debt concerns, with most of its maturities pushed out past 2021. And the stock is trading at dirt-cheap levels based on its huge growth potential.
• » Arbiter, one of the top performing value funds in the world, now owns more than 17% of the company, with top executives now serving on the board.
• » Nine out of CSU’s top 10 shareholders added to their positions over the past three months.

Risk Factors:
• » CSU is a highly leveraged company. If rates go significantly higher, the company could have trouble refinancing its debt in the future.
• » Insurance risks as senior living companies can get hit with large lawsuits if a tenant gets injured or if there are signs of malpractice.
• » Huge competition. This is an industry with low barriers to entry, which could result in even more competitors entering the industry in the future.
• » Regulation. Constant changes in healthcare laws could result in even more competition entering the market or an increase in taxes, which could impact profits.

Investment Thesis:
• » Buy-up-to Price: $16 per share
• » Position Size: No more than 3% of total portfolio
• » Exit Strategy: Sell half when shares double from here. Hold the rest of the position long-term as the fundamentals continue to improve over the next 5, 10 and even 20 years.


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